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Author: Chris
Latest update:March 16, 2024

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Gambler's Fallacy 1

Have you ever found yourself in a situation where you believe that the odds of winning have increased after a series of losses?

Or perhaps, you’re convinced that a certain outcome is more likely to happen because it hasn’t occurred in a while? If so, you may have fallen prey to what is commonly known as the “gamblers fallacy.”

We outline 5 Key Points that you should know for gambler’s fallacy:


1. Cognitive bias

Gamblers fallacy is a cognitive bias that affects an individual’s decision-making process in games of chance. This bias leads individuals to believe that the outcome of a random event is influenced by the previous outcomes, which is a false belief.

2. False belief

The gambler’s fallacy is based on the false belief that past events can influence future outcomes in games of chance. For example, a player may believe that after several losses, they are due for a win, or after several wins, they are due for a loss.

3. Irrational decisions

This false belief can lead individuals to make irrational decisions, such as increasing their bets after a series of losses or changing their strategy based on perceived patterns. This can result in significant financial losses for the individual.

4. Common phenomenon

The gambler’s fallacy is a common phenomenon in gambling and is observed in various games of chance such as roulette, coin tosses, and slot machines. It is important to recognize this fallacy and not base decisions on past events or perceived patterns.

5. Statistical probability

It is crucial to base decisions on statistical probability rather than past events or perceived patterns. Understanding the mathematical probability of each event occurring in games of chance can help individuals make more informed and rational decisions, reducing the risk of significant financial losses.


Conclusion

The gambler’s fallacy is a cognitive bias that can lead to irrational decision-making in games of chance. It is important for individuals to recognise this phenomenon and make decisions based on statistical probability rather than past events or perceived patterns.

Falling prey to the gambler’s fallacy can result in significant financial losses, making it essential for gamblers to approach games of chance with a clear understanding of the true odds and probabilities involved.

By avoiding the gambler’s fallacy, individuals can make informed decisions and enjoy gambling responsibly.