Paddy Power refund if win

Paddy Power refund if win offer is available on popular football matches.

This guide explains the matched betting strategy for Paddy Power refund offers.

Losing bets are refunded (as a free bet) if a certain outcome happens.

For example, “Refund if PSG beat Liverpool

Matched bettors can back and lay a selection, then hope for the refund trigger to happen.

If you place a losing correct score bet and PSG win – Paddy Power then credit a free bet refund (up to £10).

Key Terms

Important points for your qualifying bets:

Refund if’ strategy

There are two ways to approach this offer:

  1. Not locking in, or
  2. Locking in a profit.

Let’s assume the offer is “Refund if PSG win” (versus Liverpool)

No lock in method

This is a back, lay and hope strategy.

Find a qualifying bet with an outcome where PSG cannot win.

However, the key is to find tightly matched back and lay odds.

For PSG versus Liverpool, Kylian Mbappe anytime goal scorer was 2.2/2.46.

  1. Place a £10 back bet on Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at 6/5 (2.2) with Paddy Power.
  2. Place a £9 lay bet on Kylian Mbappe at 2.46 in the ‘Anytime Goalscorer’ market on Smarkets exchange. Qualifying loss is around £1.
  3. Hope that your qualifying bet loses and PSG win (Hope that Mbappe doesn’t score a goal, but PSG do win)

If your qualifying bet loses and PSG win, you’ll receive a £10 free bet refund.

In the match between PSG and Liverpool, Kylian Mbappe didn’t score and PSG won 2-1, so Paddy Power credited a £10 free bet.

This was fortunate because Mbappe might have scored in a PSG win. That wouldn’t have qualified for the refund.

“Refund if” offers will not always trigger. The key is to find a minimal loss qualifying bet.

Lock in method

Find a qualifying bet with a small gap between the back and lay odds. Then you can lock in some profit.

For example, a correct score where PSG cannot win (draw: 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, or a score where Liverpool win).

Here’s the lock-in method:

  1. Place a £10 qualifying bet on 1-1 correct score at odds of 13/2 (7.50) at Paddy Power.
  2. Place a lay bet at the exchange: Lay £8.09 on 1-1 at 9.8 on Smarkets for £2.50 loss (2% commission).
  3. Finally, Lay £2.90 on PSG at odds of 2.16 at Smarkets.

If PSG win: your qualifying loss is -£5.86 with £10 free bet to come.

If PSG do not win: the outcome is +£0.34 from the qualifying bet.

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